Fax: 86-10-6280 0297
Email:wangweiji@clima.net.cn
wangweiji@gmail.cn
Address:RM3A07,YinGu Plaza, No 9 West Road, North Fourth Ring Road, Beijing 100080,China PR
1 event
June 15, China officially launched the reform of rail freight.
2 Our analysis and judgment
After (a) the establishment of the first reforms of total iron, truck demand will benefit reform
Rail freight reform is the establishment of the China Railway Corporation introduced the first reforms aimed at achieving OTIF transition to a market-oriented production internally to improve the quality and efficiency of rail transport. Earnings from the former Ministry of Railways main freight, rail freight is an important breakthrough in the reform. Currently railway freight turnover is much lower than the proportion of roads and water and land, mainly due to lack of transport capacity and rail freight system problems. With the economic recovery in the next few years, after the high-speed rail network to enhance passenger capacity, cargo capacity can be released, freight institutional changes, the future of rail freight is expected to enhance the volume and price trends, which will greatly boost the demand for railway wagons.
(B) demand the release of corporate-owned car, truck railroad boom up
April 2013, the National Railway Bureau, "three" program formally issued, the railway system into the implementation stage. Sanding the new scheme, and the original corporate-owned vehicles to participate in rail transport for approval, approval of 14 railway line right enterprise integration with the national railway approvals are canceled. Self-built railway line coming national railway network, independent truck purchase the freedom of Internet access will be the trend of increased demand for upcoming corporate-owned car sustained release.
(C) National Railways, owned car, exit the "troika"-led growth
In the national railway, owned cars and exports, the next three years, the average annual demand growth of railway wagons around 10%. 2013-2015 is expected to maintain an average annual national railway trucks 5-10% (Magnitude) growth; owned car maintained an average annual growth of about 10%; overseas exports to maintain 10-20% growth.
3. Investment advice
Railway truck industry boom up, devaluation venture north. China CNR, China South Locomotive, Northern Venture, Jinxi Axle four companies account for China's railway industry for more than 90% of the truck market share. China CNR, China South Locomotive body mass due to other businesses moving cars, locomotives, subway and other large urban rail, truck pulling obvious growth on the results. Northern Venture performance flexibility, the company benefited from the railway sector reform, owned vehicles, export, defense business-driven high growth.